Although Japan has a basically free economic system, it is necessary to have a long range economic project in order to carry out a sound economic policy with foresightedness. As a project of this sort, the New Long-Range Economic Program was framed by the Economic Council at the end of 1957, in response to a request of the government. In 1960 this program was reformed and developed as the National Income Doubling Program which makes clear the aim to double the national income in ten years. A feature of this program is that it has the planning of public investment as its core, though the considerations of private investment and of various institutional measures are not lacking. Tables 1 and 2 show, respectively, how this program estimates the future development of national economy and transport in this country. As regards transport, table 2 indicates a considerable (relative) decrease of the share of railways as compared with a remarkable increase of the share of cars and trucks. The extent of investment necessary for realizing those developments is also calculated. The sum which falls under the heading of public investment is shown in Table 3. What is noticeable here is that the road investment is to be greatly expanded during the coming 10 years so as to make road facilities fit for rapidly increasing automobiles. Table 4 shows the expected road improvement during 10 years in case the road investment of Table 3 is realized, and Table 5 shows the anticipated increase of automobiles. Comparing Tables 4 and 5, we cannot be so optimistic as to the condition of road congestion after 10 years, because, if the anticipation of Table 5 comes true, the increase of vehicles will necessarily outpace the road improvement in spite of the acceleration of road improvement through the expanded road investment. In the proposed program a number of organizational or institutional measures in the transport field of investment along with the over-all expansion of facilities, will improve transport systems so that they will meet expanded economic activities anticipated after 10 years. However, the author believes that the proposals are not adequate enough and must be intensified, modified or supplemented by other considerations in order to satisfy the expanded future requirements from industrial field. The author intends to clarify the inescapable defects of the proposals and other considerations made in the program, arranging them in three major points, namely; the program is 1) does not recognize fully the necessity of further rationalization in each transport field; 2) does not consider the problem of integration and co-ordination in transport in their full scale; 3) does not always gear with industrial location program and city redevelopment program, without whose co-ordination any extensive transport program result in a failure or a paper-plan. Table 1 Anticipated Development of National Economy [table] Table 2 Anticipated Development of Transport [table] Table 3 Public Investment in Transport Facilities Necessary during 1961~1970[table] Table 4 Expected Road Improvement in Case the Road Investment of 5900 Billion Yen during 1961~1970 is Realized [table] Table 5 Anticipated Increase of Automobiles [table]
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