3年計画の1年目である本研究は, 申請者が一貫して取り組んできた中国三峡ダムの歴史と決定の構造について, 従来の研究では空白であった60年代初めの計画の停滞とその打開を目指す推進派の動きを分析し, 現代中国の政策決定過程における安全保障要因による影響の解明を行った。
第一に, 三峡ダム計画が停滞した最大の要因は, 国際情勢の変化にともなう人民解放軍の関与であった。計画は58年8月に「大躍進運動」の流れのなかで一旦早められた。しかし, その直後に最高指導層は, 台湾海峡における国民党軍およびその背後にある米軍との衝突とさらなる紛争回避の努力, 旧ソ連との関係悪化, 中印国境紛争などの対応に追われ, 計画に慎重な姿勢を見せた。
具体的には, 軍が58年9月に周恩来の指示によって関与をはじめたことで, すでに決定されていた三闘坪ダムサイトが敵の核ミサイル襲撃に耐えられないとして60年8月に却下された。それにより, 70年代末までダムサイトが定まらず, 計画は迷走の一途をたどったのである。
第二に, 推進派は三峡ダム計画が行き詰まるなかで, いろいろな対策を講じ存続を模索した。推進派は新たなダムサイトの提起と同時に, 自らが従来強調してきた三峡ダムの洪水防除の役割を二の次にして, 発電の役割をアピールする「分期建設」方案さえも提案した。また三峡ダムの建設が現実味を失ったなかで, 推進派内部で「会師三峡」という戦略が立てられ, 三峡ダムの実現にむけて「梯子」と称されたいろいろなダムの建設を通して人材の育成と経験の蓄積を図った。
第三に, 従来強調されてきた政策過程におけるソ連人専門家の役割について, 三峡ダム計画の頓挫は最高指導層の意向と軍の関与によるものであり, たとえソ連人専門家の異議や引き上げがなくとも, 計画が棚上げされる可能性があった。
This research is the first year of the 3-year plan on an analysis on the history and policy process of the Three Gorges Dam that the applicant has consistently worked on. It is an analysis on the stagnation and the pro-dam advocates' movements for breakthrough of the plan in the early 1960s, which was unclear from past research, and an elucidation of the influence of national security factors in the policy decision process of modern China.
Firstly, the biggest factor behind the stagnation of the Three Gorges Dam plan was involvement of the People's Liberation Army following changes in the international affairs. The plan was advanced in the midst of the "Great Leap Forward" in August 1958. However, shortly afterwards, the supreme leadership was forced to handle the conflict with the Guomindang army in the Taiwan Strait and the US forces behind it, efforts in avoiding further disputes, worsening relations with the former Soviet Union, and Sino-Indian border dispute. This caused the leadership to show a more cautious stance on the plan.
Specifically, as the army started to get involved in September 1958 by instructions from Zhou Enlai, in August 1960 the already determined Sandouping dam site, was dismissed because it was found unable to bear the enemy's nuclear missile assault. As a result, the dam site was not determined until the end of the 1970s, and the plan went astray.
Secondly, while the Three Gorges Dam plan was in a stalemate, the pro-dam advocates searched for continuation of the plan by taking various measures. At the same time as promoting new dam sites, they even proposed a "Construction in stages (Fenqijianshe)" scheme that emphasized the role of power generation. This placed the role of flood control of the Three Gorges Dam in second, although they have persistently emphasized it in the past. In addition, as the construction of the Three Gorges Dam lost its reality, a strategy called "All in for the Three Gorges (Huishisanxia)" was established by the pro-dam advocates. This strategy aimed to develop human resources and accumulate experience through the construction of various dams called "Ladders (Tizi)", with the ultimate goal of reviving and implementing the Three Gorges Dam plan.
Thirdly, even without the Soviet experts' dissent and pullout, there was a possibility that the Three Gorges Dam plan would've been deferred. Though the role of Soviet experts in the policy process has been emphasized in the past, the setback of the Three Gorges Dam plan is due to the intention of the Supreme Leadership and the involvement of the military.