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KAKEN_16K12828seika.pdf
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Title |
Title |
火山噴火時における避難施設の適正な配置計画に関する数理モデルの開発とその応用
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カザン フンカジ ニ オケル ヒナン シセツ ノ テキセイナ ハイチ ケイカク ニ カンスル スウリ モデル ノ カイハツ ト ソノ オウヨウ
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Kazan funkaji ni okeru hinan shisetsu no tekiseina haichi keikaku ni kansuru sūri moderu no kaihatsu to sono ōyō
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Mathematical models for shelter site selection in the event of volcanic eruption and their applications
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田中, 健一
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タナカ, ケンイチ
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Tanaka, Ken'ichi
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慶應義塾大学・理工学部 (矢上)・准教授
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Research team head
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科研費研究者番号 : 90408724
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鳥海, 重喜
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トリウミ, シゲキ
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Toriumi, Shigeki
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中央大学・理工学部・准教授
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Research team member
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科研費研究者番号 : 60455441
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2019
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科学研究費補助金研究成果報告書
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2018
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火山噴火の際に,登山者や周辺住民が安全に避難するための避難施設の配置方法を決定する数理モデルを構築した.特に,噴火時にランダムに飛来する噴石を,確率モデルを用いて表現し,登山者が退避壕に安全に避難する経路を求めるための問題を定式化した.その上で,避難者が最も安全な経路を選択した場合に,期待避難者数を最大化する配置問題,避難困難地点の避難確率を最大化する問題,一定の避難確率を保証する条件下で最小の施設数を求める問題等を構築し,最適解の特徴を比較した.さらに噴石の飛来の密度が噴火口からの距離と時間に依存して変化することに着目し,時空間ネットワークを用いた拡張モデルを構築し た.
In Japan, attention has been paid to the installation of shelters to protect people from rocks flying out of the crater when a volcanic eruption occurs. We propose optimization models to decide shelter site for protecting people from flying rocks in a mountain trail. First, the maxisum and maximin models are presented, where the former maximizes the expected number of people to be safely reach a shelter while the latter maximizes the smallest probability to be safely reach a shelter. We also present the set covering formulation that finds the minimum number of shelters by ensuring that every location receives a given level of safe evacuation. Furthermore, we propose dynamic site selection models that explicitly incorporate the fact that the risk to pass through each link of a network varies depending on the distance from the crater and the time elapsed from volcanic eruption.
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研究種目 : 挑戦的萌芽研究
研究期間 : 2016~2018
課題番号 : 16K12828
研究分野 : オペレーションズ・リサーチ
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