本稿では, 施設不足が指摘され, 今後さらにその傾向が強くなると予想される東京圏の自治体を対象に, 90年代の「計画の時代」と2000年以降の「介護保険の時代」において, 介護老人福祉施設(特別養護老人ホーム)の建設・拡充がどのような要因で行われたかを定量的に分析した。推定の結果, 90年代では, 建設や拡充の決定は自治体の整備水準や近隣自治体の整備状況といった要因に大きく影響される。一方, 2000年以降は高齢者増加率などの人口要因の影響が強い事が明らかとなり, 介護政策（制約）が建設決定に大きな影響を与える事が明らかとなった。
This study targets local governments in the wider Tokyo Metropolitan Area, wherein a growing shortage of elderly nursing facilities trend has been indicated and is expected to become more intense, by quantitatively analyzing the factors under which the construction and expansion of elderly welfare nursing facilities (Special Elderly Nursing Homes) occurred in the "Planning Age" of the 1990's and the "Nursing Insurance Age" of 2000 onwards. 
The estimation results for the 90's reveal that construction and expansion decisions were significantly affected by the maintenance standards set by the municipality and the maintenance conditions of neighboring municipalities. 
On the other hand, from 2000 onwards, it is clear that the influence of populational factors, such as increasing ratios of elderly populations, and so on, became stronger as nursing policies (constraints) significantly affected construction decisions.

小特集 : 世界の中の日本