京都議定書が発効し, 温暖化抑制に向け大きな一歩を踏み出した。一方, 最大の排出国である米国が議定書から離脱し, また, 今後排出の増加が見込まれる途上国が排出削減義務を負わないなどの課題も抱えており, 京都議定書以降の排出削減枠組が重要である。その際, 二酸化炭素濃度安定化など長期的な視点で対策を考える必要があり, そこでは, 長期的かつグローバルな視点から技術の果たす役割を評価しておくことが, 適切な枠組・目標を設定するために不可欠である。それを怠れば, 実効ある削減枠組・目標を構築できないばかりか, 不用意に大きなコスト負担をもたらし, 世界の持続的な発展を阻害し, 温暖化以外の大きなリスクを引き起こす恐れもある。本稿では, 高い地域解像度を有するエネルギーシステムモデルによって, 二酸化炭素濃度安定化のための技術の役割を定量的に評価し, それを通して, 長期的な排出削減枠組・目標のあり方を議論する。
With the enactment of the Kyoto Protocol, a big step was taken toward reducing global warming.
On the other hand, with problems such as the withdrawal from the protocol by the largest emission country, the United States, coupled with the fact that developing countries, which are projected to increase emissions, are not obligated to reduce emissions, the nature of the emissions reduction framework established after the Kyoto Protocol is important.
In doing so, it is necessary to consider measures from a long-term perspective such as CO2 concentration stabilization, for establishing an adequate framework and goals, while evaluating the role technology plays from a long-term global perspective.
If this is neglected, not only is the construction of an effective reduction framework and objective impossible, but it also introduces the possibility of producing inadvertently large cost burdens, potentially inhibiting the sustainable development of the world and causing other risks greater than warming.
In this study, we employ an energy system model with a high regional resolution to quantitatively evaluate the role of technologies for CO2 concentration stabilization and discuss the ideal form of a long-term emissions reduction framework and goals.
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