京都議定書の存在により先進国を中心に世界が真剣に温暖化対策に取り組み, その成果もあがっている。しかし, 議定書が対象とするのは2012年までであり, その後の国際的枠組みを早急に検討しなければならない。本稿では, まず温暖化と不確実性の関係を論じ, 次いで京都議定書体制の延長は実現可能性および環境効果面から問題があることを明らかにする。そして, 代替案として税, 効率目標, 政策・措置導入のコミットメント, ハイブリッド政策の長短を検討した上で, アメリカおよび主要途上国の参加の観点から, 将来枠組みの最初の一歩としてpledge and review を提案する。その後途上国参加問題の検討を通して長期的な温暖化対策の鍵を握るのは脱炭素社会に向けての革新的技術の開発である点を強調する。最後に環境と経済の両立を目指し, 温暖化の優先順位の問題を提起する。
Through the existence of the Kyoto Protocol, the world, led by the developed countries, has seriously grappled with global warming countermeasures, and there are indications that results are coming to fruition.
However, the Protocol is only effective till 2012; thereafter, the international framework should be urgently reconsidered.
This study first discusses the relationship between climate change and its uncertainty.
Then co-authors show that extending the Kyoto Protocol Regime would not be relevant from the view point of feasibility and environmental effectiveness.
Furthermore, we propose Pledge and Review as an first-step alternative future framework after considering the pros and cons of taxes, efficiency targets, commitment to introducing policies and measures, and hybrid policies from the perspective of the participation of the United States and major developing countries.
Subsequently, through studies of developing countries participation issues, we emphasize the point that the development of innovative technologies aiming at a carbon-free society holds the key to long-term global warming countermeasures.
Finally, in order to make environment and economy mutually supportive, we raise the issue of prioritization of global warming issues among other globally urgent issues.
|
