我が国の政府債務の持続可能性が懸念される中で, 我が国政府の純債務残高で見ると深刻な規模ではなく, 十分に実現可能な政府収入対GDP比の水準を確保することで政府債務は維持できる, と主張するBroda and Weinstein(2005)が発表された。本稿では, Broda and Weinstein論文の再検証を試み, 政府債務について, 償還財源に充当することを想定していない中央政府や地方政府の金融資産を純債務として相殺しなかったり, 直近の財政悪化を加味したりすると, 政府債務を持続可能にするには, Broda and Weinstein論文の結果よりも高い政府収入対GDP比が必要で, 社会保障給付の抑制とともに相当程度の増税が必要となる水準であることが示唆された。
This paper verifies results in Broda and Weinstein (2005) and suggests a higher government revenue to GDP ratio than the results in their study is needed.
Under a situation wherein the sustainability of government debt in Japan is a concern, Broda and Weinstein argued that the Japanese government debt is sustainable by maintaining an achievable government revenue to GDP ratio, based on net debt basis.
The results in this paper, however, means that in order to make the government's debt sustainable, a reduction of social security benefits and a considerable measure of tax increases are all necessary in the future. In the analyses in this paper, financial assets of central and local governments, which are not being considered by the government for use as repayment resources, have not been offset.
Moreover, the fact that the fiscal situation has deteriorated further recently is given.
|
