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タイトル Labor productivity and quality change in Singapore: achievements in 1974–2011 and prospects for the next two decades  
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別タイトル
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著者
名前 野村, 浩二  
カナ ノムラ, コウジ  
ローマ字 Nomura, Koji  
所属 慶應義塾大学産業研究所准教授  
所属(翻訳)  
役割  
外部リンク  

名前 天野, 友道  
カナ アマノ, トモミチ  
ローマ字 Amano, Tomomichi  
所属  
所属(翻訳)  
役割  
外部リンク  
Publisher  
出版地
Tokyo  
出版者
名前 Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo  
カナ  
ローマ字  
日付
出版年(from:yyyy) 2012  
出版年(to:yyyy)  
作成日(yyyy-mm-dd)  
更新日(yyyy-mm-dd)  
記録日(yyyy-mm-dd)  
形態
55 p.  
上位タイトル
名前 KEO discussion paper  
翻訳  
 
129  
2012  
9  
開始ページ  
終了ページ  
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抄録
Labor productivity growth in Singapore that has grown at a rate of over 3.0 percent per year since 1970s considerably slowed down to 0.5 percent on average per annum in the latter half of the 2000s. The purpose of this paper is to ask, first, to what extent Singapore's labor productivity performance is explained by the changes in the characteristics composition of its workforce, and then, what the prospect may hold. Using our newly constructed cross-classified labor dataset, we estimate a volume index of quality-adjusted labor input and an aggregate measure of labor quality change in the Singaporean economy for the period of 1974–2011. Having understood the current dynamics of the workforce, we further project labor productivity and potential economic growth for the coming two decades. In this paper, workers are distinguished by the five characteristic dimensions: gender, educational attainment, age, employment status, and residency. Our findings establish the role of labor quality changes in Singapore's economic growth as highly significant over the long run. During the period of 1974–2011, labor quality improved at a rate of 2.19 percent on average per annum, accounting for 37 percent of labor input growth to the 6.78 percent average yearly economic growth. 
Our estimates of recent labor quality growth, however, are considerably lower than what have been shown in some previous studies. Moreover, our projections suggest that its prospect in the foreseeable future remains bleak. The downward trend of labor quality growth since the mid-2000s is mainly due to the sharp increase in the number of low-skilled foreign workers. For the next two decades, our projections in the business-as-usual scenario imply a further decrease of labor quality growth. Consequently labor productivity growth will also slow down, from 2.04 percent on average per year in the 2000s, to 1.68 percent and 1.19 per cent in the 2010s and 2020s respectively. Coupled with the downward trend in hours worked, potential GDP growth is projected as 3.10 percent on average per annum in the 2010s and 1.86 percent in the 2020s. Compared with the past experience of 5.47 percent in the 2000s, this represents a considerable slowdown in Singapore's economic growth for the next two decades, if there is no appropriate policy response or boost to TFP growth. 
Policies, which successfully upgrade the resident workers' skills and/or induce the substitution of IT capital investment for the low-skilled non-resident workers, will lift the projection of labor productivity growth to 2.64 percent and 1.82 percent on average per annum in the 2010s and the 2020s respectively. However, the projected growth rate of potential GDP is little improved. At 3.22 percent in the 2010s and 2.06 percent in the 2020s, our projections even with successful policies are closer to the lower end of the target range set by the Economic Strategies Committee of Singapore's government for the 2010s. We conclude that the room to boost growth by improving labor quality is very limited, and policies targeting TFP growth may be more fruitful.
 
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言語
英語  
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text  
ジャンル
Technical Report  
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最終更新日
Feb 28, 2013 11:08:55  
作成日
Feb 27, 2013 09:00:00  
所有者
mediacenter
 
更新履歴
Feb 28, 2013    フリーキーワード, 抄録 を変更
 
インデックス
/ Public / 産業研究所 / KEO discussion paper / 101-144
 
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