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AA00260481-20130000-0001.pdf
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Title |
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Fiscal consolidation in Japan
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深尾, 光洋
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フカオ, ミツヒロ
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Fukao, Mitsuhiro
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Professor, Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University
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Society of Business and Commerce, Keio University
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2013
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Keio business review
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48(2013)
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1(1)
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24(24)
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In order to maintain the stability of its financial system, Japan must control its budget deficit by continuing with a contractionary fiscal policy. Ideally, the negative effects of a tight fiscal policy should be countered by an expansionary monetary policy. However, the effectiveness of the conventional interest-rate policy has been diluted by the zero lower bound of interest rates. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked the Bank of Japan to set a 2 percent inflation target to be achieved in two years through a massive quantitative easing of the monetary base. In this paper, we first review Japan's macroeconomic performance since the collapse of the asset-price bubble in the late 1980s. Next, we make a long-term projection of Japan's fiscal balance by estimating the macro production function for Japan. We also estimate the required increase in the government's tax revenues under a few scenarios. After presenting a possible fiscal crisis scenario in Japan, we evaluate the effectiveness of quantitative easing and highlight its limitations. Thereafter, we propose some measures to consolidate budget deficits under a deflationary environment in order to avoid such a crisis. Some policy options include a combination of a gradual increase in indirect taxes and a reduction in payroll tax. In order to overcome the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates, the introduction of the Gesell tax is also proposed. By levying a tax on the outstanding amount of government-guaranteed financial assets including cash, it is possible to set a negative nominal return on safe assets.
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Potential Growth JEL classification: G21
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Sep 12, 2019 | | 上位タイトル,上位タイトル 号,上位タイトル 年 を変更 |
Sep 13, 2019 | | 上位タイトル 巻,上位タイトル を変更 |
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