社会が災害科学に期待することは自然災害の防止や軽減であり, それには災害を予測する必要があるが, 予測が困難な場合が多いため, 災害科学の社会貢献は不定性が高くなる。それを念頭に置かずに「踏み越え」が行われると科学者が刑事責任まで問われることがあり, イタリアのラクイラ地震裁判はその最近の例である。我々は, 資料収集や聞き取り調査, 判決理由書の分析等を行い, そこでの災害科学の不定性と科学者の責任を検討した。その結果, 裁判の対象となったラクイラ地震の人的被害は, 災害科学の不定性を踏まえない市民保護庁副長官の安易な「安全宣言」が主な原因という結論を得た。また, これのみを報じた報道機関にも重大な責任がある。
What disaster sciences are expected by the society is to prevent or mitigate future natural disasters, and therefore it is necessary to foresee natural disasters. However, various constraints often make the foreseeing difficult so that there is a high incertitude in the social contribution of disaster sciences. If scientists overstep this limitation, they will be held even criminally responsible. The L'Aquila trial in Italy is such a recent example and so we have performed data collections, hearing investigations, analyses of the reasons for judgement, etc., to explore the incertitude of disaster sciences and scientists' responsibilities. As a result, we concluded that the casualties during the L'Aquila earthquake were mainly due to a careless "safety declaration" by the vice-director of the Civil Protection Agency, where the incertitude of disaster sciences had never been considered. News media which reported only this "safety declaration" were also responsible for the casualties.

研究種目 : 基盤研究(C)
研究期間 : 2011～2014
課題番号 : 23510219
研究分野 : 地震学