本稿では，2024年のコメ価格高騰の要因として，消費者の過剰需要，JA等コメ生産者の生産調整，コメ不足を背景としたコメ流通業者の価格設定の3要因を挙げ，Bilateral Bresnahanモデルにもとづいてそれぞれの影響を分析した。分析の結果，（1）価格高騰期に1～3割の超過需要（買い溜め）が存在していたこと，（2）減反政策廃止後も生産調整の結果，生産者価格は競争価格から大きく乖離し，カルテル価格に近い状況にあること，（3）流通業者も寡占的な価格設定をおこなっており，2024年6月以降，その傾向がより強くなっていること，（4）コメ市場の非競争性による消費者コストは1世帯あたり月1,567円であること，が明らかになった。
In this paper, Three factors should cause the rice price hike in 2024: excess demand of consumers, production adjustments by rice producers and JA, price setting of rice distributors due to rice shortages. Bilateral Bresnahan model is applied to analyze the impact of each factor. The estimation results show that (1) there was a 10–30％ excess demand (hoarding) during the price hike period, (2) even after the rice production reduction policy was abolished, as a result of production adjustments, producer prices have deviated significantly from competitive prices and are close to cartel prices, (3) oligopolistic price setting has also been carried out in the distribution market, and this trend has become stronger since June 2024, and (4) as a result of non-competitiveness in the rice market, each household is bearing a monthly cost of 1,567yen.

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