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Item Type Article
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AA10715850-00001011-0001  
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AA10715850-00001011-0001.pdf
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Last updated :Apr 7, 2011
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Title
Title Simulating fiscal sustainability in the US  
Kana  
Romanization  
Other Title
Title  
Kana  
Romanization  
Creator
Name 櫻川, 昌哉  
Kana サクラガワ, マサヤ  
Romanization Sakuragawa, Masaya  
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Affiliation (Translated)  
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Name 細野, 薫  
Kana ホソノ, カオル  
Romanization Hosono, Kaoru  
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Affiliation (Translated)  
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Name 佐野, 薫  
Kana サノ, カオル  
Romanization Sano, Kaoru  
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Affiliation (Translated)  
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Edition
 
Place
Tokyo  
Publisher
Name Keio Economic Society, Keio University  
Kana  
Romanization  
Date
Issued (from:yyyy) 2010  
Issued (to:yyyy)  
Created (yyyy-mm-dd)  
Updated (yyyy-mm-dd)  
Captured (yyyy-mm-dd)  
Physical description
32 leaves ; 30 cm.  
Source Title
Name Keio Economic Society discussion paper series  
Name (Translated)  
Volume 10  
Issue 11  
Year 2010  
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Abstract
We explain low interest rates of government bonds relative to the growth rate by providing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a production economy featuring intermediation costs and heterogeneous access to production among agents. We investigate fiscal sustainability by testing whether the expected debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizes or increases without bound. We update the future fiscal variables by specifying a fiscal rule that incorporates Obama's plan and the observed correlation between the primary surplus-to-GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate, and simulate the debt-to-GDP ratio. We report that the fiscal policy of the US is not sustainable in the sense that the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase without bound with a probability greater than 50 percent.
 
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Language
英語  
Type of resource
text  
Genre
Technical Report  
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Last modified date
Apr 07, 2011 09:00:00  
Creation date
Apr 07, 2011 09:00:00  
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/ Public / Faculty of Economics / Keio economic society discussion paper series / 10 (2010) / 10(11) 2010
 
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