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AA00260492-20010002-0075.pdf
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Title |
Title |
A SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY CONVERGES TO THE OBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
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UTSUMI, Yukihisa
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Kana |
ウツミ, ユキヒサ
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Graduate School of Economics, Keio University
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Keio Economic Society, Keio University
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2001
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Keio economic studies
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38
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2
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2001
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75
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82
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Abstract |
In this paper we formulate an uncertain situation for an agent and investigate a learning process which is formed from his or her knowledge structure. The purpose of this paper is to prove that his or her subjective probability converges to the true distribution which governs the uncertain states, whenever he or she updates his or her forecast by a rational learning. This result means that even if individuals do not have the same prior, they will come to have a common posterior.
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