2023年度は、研究課題と関連する2本の論文の改訂に取り組み、1本の論文を新たに作成した。
まず、トレンド・インフレと均衡経路が非決定となる可能性を考慮したニュー・ケインジアン・モデルの推定を行い、1980年代半ば以降の米国におけるインフレ率の慣性の変化の原因を分析した論文「Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy」（黒住卓司、Willem Van Zandwegheとの共著）の改訂を行った。改訂版の論文は、国際学術雑誌であるReview of Economic Dynamicsに掲載された。
次に、行動経済学的期待形成とゼロ金利制約を考慮した非線形ニュー・ケインジアン・モデルを推定した論文「Estimating a Behavioral New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound」（飯星博邦、上田晃三、新谷元嗣との共著）の改訂を行い、国際学術雑誌であるJournal of Money, Credit and Bankingへの掲載が決まった。
さらに、カバーなし金利平価（UIP: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity）が成立せず均衡経路が非決定となる可能性を考慮した小国開放動学的一般均衡モデルをカナダと米国のデータを用いて推定した論文「Connecting Exchange Rates to Fundamentals Under Indeterminacy」（藤原一平との共著）を新たに執筆した。同論文について、Université Côte d'Azur主催のInternational Conference on Computing in Economics and FinanceとAsia School of Business主催のWorkshop of the Australasian Macroeconomics Societyで発表を行った。現在は学術雑誌への投稿に向けて改訂を行っている。
In the academic year of 2023, I worked on revising two papers related to our research agenda and one new paper.
First, we estimated a New Keynesian model that takes into account trend inflation and the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy, and analyzed the causes of the change in inflation persistence in the United States since the mid-1980s in the paper "Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy,. and Monetary Policy" (co-authored with Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe). The revised paper was published in the Review of Economic Dynamics.
Next, we revised the paper "Estimating a Behavioral New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound" (co-authored with Hirokuni Iiboshi, Mototsugu Shintani, and Kozo Ueda), which estimates a nonlinear New Keynesian model with behavioral expectation formation and the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. The revised paper has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
In addition, we estimated a small open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model that takes into account the possibility that UIP (Uncovered Interest Rate Parity) does not hold and that the equilibrium path can be indeterminate, using data from Canada and the U.S. The paper, "Connecting Exchange Rates to Fundamentals Under Indeterminacy" (co-authored with Ippei Fujiwara) was presented at the International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance organized by the Université Côte d'Azur and the Workshop of the Australasian Macroeconomics Society organized by the Asia School of Business. The paper is currently being revised for submission to an academic journal.
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