今年度は、他資金も用いて、かなり充実した海外調査ができた。とりわけ、旧ソ連諸国の６カ国（アゼルバイジャン、アルメニア、ウズベキスタン、ジョージア、タジキスタン、トルクメニスタン）で調査の意義はとても大きく、ロシアの周辺国（ノルウェー、ポーランド、フィンランド）でリアルな対露脅威を把握し、さらにベルギーでEU、NATOの動向も調査するなど、極めて重層的な調査ができた。
今年度の最大の成果は「ウクライナ戦争は旧ソ連全体を分析しなければ理解できない」という事実の確認である。旧ソ連全体の動きを見ていれば、戦争勃発を予防できる局面は確実にあった。そして、現在のロシアの継戦能力を支える主要国は旧ソ連諸国であり、並行輸入、移民の受け皿となること、制裁で欧米に行かれないロシア人の旅行先としての意義など他面的にロシアの経済と社会を支えている。中央アジア、コーカサスには、自国経済がロシアへの出稼ぎ労働者からの送金で支えられている国も多い一方、ロシアも戦時経済を支える人手が必要であり、それらの国々とロシアの経済関係は互恵的だ。だが、近年、ロシアは労働移民にロシア国籍を付与し、徴兵してウクライナの戦場に送り込むケースも増えており、問題は深刻だ。ウクライナ戦争勃発後、ロシアを軽視する国も出てきたものの、経済・エネルギーの対露依存、安全保障問題、どこかの火種を揺さぶって混乱を引き起こす脅威をちらつかせる「脅迫」はロシアにとっての重要な切り札であり、ロシアに決定的に離反をすることは旧ソ連諸国にとっては困難だ。
これらの調査結果は、論文や記事の執筆、メディアでの発言に加え、日本の国会議員の勉強会や省庁での会議でも発表しており、日本において広く成果を公表できていると考える。また現状では具体的なことは書けないが、ウクライナ和平にも公的に関わるなかで、本研究によってリアルな現場でも貢献ができていると考える。
This year, with the help of other funds, we were able to conduct quite substantial overseas research. In particular, the survey was of great significance in six former USSR countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan), and in understanding the real threat to Russia in Russia's neighboring countries (Norway, Poland, and Finland). We were also able to conduct an extremely multi-layered investigation, including investigating EU and NATO trends in Belgium.
The greatest achievement of this year was the confirmation of the fact that "the war in Ukraine cannot be understood without analyzing the entire former USSR." If we look at the movements of the former USSR as a whole, there were certainly situations in which the outbreak of war could have been prevented. The main countries that currently support Russia's ability to continue the war are the countries of the former USSR, which have other aspects such as being a source of parallel imports, immigration, and being a tourist destination for Russians who cannot travel to the West due to sanctions. It supports Russia's economy and society. While there are many countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus whose economies are supported by remittances from migrant workers to Russia, Russia also needs human resources to support its wartime economy, and Russia's economic relations with these countries are It's mutually beneficial. However, in recent years, Russia has increasingly granted labor migrants Russian citizenship, conscripted them into soldiers, and sent them to the battlefields in Ukraine, making the problem even more serious. After the outbreak of the Ukraine war, some countries began to look down on Russia, but economic and energy dependence on Russia, security issues, and "blackmail" that threatens to shake up a spark and cause chaos are important to Russia. This is a powerful diplomatic card, and it will be difficult for the former USSR countries to decisively defect from Russia.
In addition to writing papers and articles and speaking in the media, these research results have been presented at study sessions for Japanese Diet members and meetings at government ministries and agencies, and we believe that the results have been widely publicized in Japan. Furthermore, although I cannot write about anything specific at this point, I believe that I am able to make a contribution in the real world through this research as I am publicly involved in the peace process in Ukraine.
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