歴史資料に基づき, 大正期のスペインインフルエンザ流行に伴う人口変動が教育達成度に及ぼした影響を計量経済学的に分析した。データは『日本帝国文部省年報』, 『全国公立私立中学校ニ関スル調査』, 『日本帝国死因統計』, 『壮丁教育調査』等である。分析の結果, 流行性感冒と関連する病因を含めた広義インフルエンザ死亡数が12歳生存数に与えた影響は有意に負であった。また, 被説明変数を20歳時点の国語, 算術, 公民科の標準得点とし, 都道府県とコホートの固定効果モデルで学力の決定要因を回帰すると, 中学校志願者数に占める入学者数割合や12歳生存人口に占める入学者数割合は, 算術等の学力格差に統計的に有意に負の影響があった。
We econometrically analyzed the effects of demographic changes due to the Spanish Influenza Pandemic on educational outcomes using historical data from Taisho era in Japan. We used several sources such as Annual Report of Ministry of Education, Middle School Survey, Death Cause Statistics, and Education Survey of New Adults. First it is found that the deaths due to the influenza and related diseases are negatively correlated with the number of children surviving at age 12 at prefecture level. Second, using the standardized test scores of math, Japanese, and civic studies measured at age 20 as dependent variables, we conducted a fixed-effect estimation controlling for birth-cohort and prefecture level unobserved characteristics. It is found that the ratio of the enrollment to applicants to middle school and the ratio of enrollment to the number of children surviving at age 12 are negatively correlated with some of the test scores at age 20, especially of math.

研究種目 : 挑戦的萌芽研究
研究期間 : 2013～2016
課題番号 : 25590060
研究分野 : 教育経済学, 応用経済学