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KAKEN_18K01562seika.pdf
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非都市部の交通需要の構造推定と新交通システムの可能性に関する基盤研究
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ヒトシブ ノ コウツウ ジュヨウ ノ コウゾウ スイテイ ト シンコウツウ システム ノ カノウセイ ニ カンスル キバン ケンキュウ
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Hitoshibu no kōtsū juyō no kōzō suitei to shinkōtsū shisutemu no kanōsei ni kansuru kiban kenkyū
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Incentive mechanism and structural estimation of demand for car ownership and utilization in non-urbanized areas
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小西, 祥文
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コニシ, ヨシフミ
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Konishi, Yoshifumi
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慶應義塾大学・経済学部 (三田) ・教授
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Research team head
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科研費研究者番号 : 40597655
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2021
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科学研究費補助金研究成果報告書
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2020
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所得,交通インフラ,車種ポートフォリオ選好の地理的分布を明示的に考慮した離散連続選択モデルの推定を行い,同モデルが,原始的なRCロジットと比べ,自動車保有・利用需要の地理空間上の分布を極めて良く説明することを明らかにした.2SRI法とCF法を使うことで,離散選択と連続選択における内生問題に対処している.同モデルを使って仮想的政策の効果を推計した結果,炭素税が,エコカー減税施策やエコカーシェア施策よりも効果的である一方,交通インフラの限られた地域への経済負担がより大きくなることが示された.派生プロジェクトとして,燃費規制の技術歪曲効果に関する実証論文を執筆し,トップ・ジャーナルに受理されている.
We empirically characterize how automobile demand varies over geographic space and how it affects the economic consequences of climate mitigation policies. We augment a discrete-continuous choice model in a way that accounts for geographic distribution of income, public transit, and portfolio preferences, and show that our model outperforms a naive random-coefficient model in explaining demand stickiness over geographic space. In particular, the model can resolve two empirical puzzles in Japan: Overall price elasticity of demand for vehicle ownership increases with vehicle size; invariance of demand for hybrid vehicles with respect to public transit density. We also use the estimated model to demonstrate the economic significance of this spatial demand heterogeneity: Eco-car sharing outperforms feebates but underperforms carbon tax; The policy impact declines with a decrease in transit density; The naive model overstates the impact in rural areas whereas understating it in urban areas.
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研究種目 : 基盤研究 (C) (一般)
研究期間 : 2018~2020
課題番号 : 18K01562
研究分野 : 実証ミクロ経済学,環境経済学,応用計量経済分析
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