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AA10715861-00000141-0001  
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AA10715861-00000141-0001.pdf
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Title
Title Redefining the picture of Myanmar's economic growth : trade, production, and jade  
Kana  
Romanization  
Other Title
Title  
Kana  
Romanization  
Creator
Name 野村, 浩二  
Kana ノムラ, コウジ  
Romanization Nomura, Koji  
Affiliation 慶應義塾大学産業研究所  
Affiliation (Translated) Associate professor at Keio Economic Observatory (KEO), Keio University  
Role  
Link  

Name 白根, 啓史  
Kana シラネ, ヒロシ  
Romanization Shirane, Hiroshi  
Affiliation 慶應義塾大学産業研究所  
Affiliation (Translated) Researcher at KEO, Keio University  
Role  
Link  
Edition
 
Place
Tokyo  
Publisher
Name Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo  
Kana  
Romanization  
Date
Issued (from:yyyy) 2016  
Issued (to:yyyy)  
Created (yyyy-mm-dd)  
Updated (yyyy-mm-dd)  
Captured (yyyy-mm-dd)  
Physical description
41 p.  
Source Title
Name KEO discussion paper  
Name (Translated)  
Volume  
Issue 141  
Year 2016  
Month 12  
Start page  
End page  
ISSN
 
ISBN
 
DOI
URI
JaLCDOI
10.14991/004.00000141-0001
NII Article ID
 
Ichushi ID
 
Other ID
 
Doctoral dissertation
Dissertation Number  
Date of granted  
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Abstract
The economic potential of Myanmar is attracting significant attention. However, some questions have been raised about the reliability of Myanmar's official system of national accounts (MMSNA). First, it is suspected that under the military regime, economic growths might have been significantly overstated since the latter half of the 1990s, by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU 2010) and the ADB (2016). The second problem is that until the shift to the managed floating exchange rate system in April 2012, the official exchange rate had been used in the MMSNA in converting international trade into the national currency. Under the official exchange rate, which set the value of the Myanmar kyat at a level far above the market exchange rate, the amounts of exports and imports were significantly undervalued, resulting in a significant underestimation of GDP. The third problem is extensive illegal trade. In recent years, Global Witness (2015a and 2015b) and Dapice et al. (2014) pointed out that illegal exports of jade, whose prices began to surge in the latter half of the 2000s, have not been properly reflected in the MMSNA. According to those recent research findings, the total transaction value of jade is estimated to equate to 48% of Myanmar's GDP in 2014.
In a bid to respond to those problems, this paper tries to develop new estimates of GDP. Our results show that Myanmar's real GDP growth turned negative twice, first in 2003–2004 and second in 2007–2008. In terms of the average growth rate for the period 1998–2010, our estimate of 4.9% represents a downward revision of 7.0 percentage points compared with the MMSNA estimate of 11.9%. The downward revision to economic growth in 1998–2010 based on our estimates bring Myanmar's GDP growth and labor productivity growth closer to those of Thailand and Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, the impact of revaluing jade transactions on macroeconomic growth is observed from the mid-2000s, for instance, turning negative growth estimated for 2004 before reflecting the reassessed values of jade transactions to positive growth. The impact of revaluation of jade is even more conspicuous in 2008 and thereafter with jade production accounting for more than 10% of Myanmar's GDP. Notably, the revaluation of jade results in a significant upward revision in 2009–2010, from 3.2% to 17.9%. On the other hand, real GDP dropped 21.5% in 2012 as jade production decreased by half following the transfer of power to the civilian government. Based on our estimates reflecting the revaluation of jade, Myanmar was comparable to India and Vietnam—both in real GDP growth and labor productivity growth—in the period 1998–2010. However, Myanmar was alone to fall into negative growth in the period 2010–2014.
 
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NDC
 
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Language
英語  
Type of resource
text  
Genre
Technical Report  
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Last modified date
Feb 20, 2024 16:26:40  
Creation date
Jan 17, 2017 15:27:34  
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History
Feb 20, 2024    JaLCDOI,Abstract 内容 を変更
 
Index
/ Public / Keio Economic Observatory(KEO) / KEO discussion paper / 101-102, 104-108, 110-119, 121-144, 147-149, 152, 155-156, 158-162, 164-168, 170, 173, 175, 177-178
 
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